Tough Times for Thompson

A Fred Thompson for President 2008 sign casts a shadow near a lonely intersection in Greenville County.


Having told reporters that he needs to achieve at least a third place finish in the Iowa caucus, the fate of Fred Thompson's presidential aspirations remains very much in question. Two new polls show him battling with McCain for third place. To make matters worse, his recent comment, "I'm not particularly interested in running for president," reinforced negative perceptions about his work ethic and enthusiasm for the job (in context, his comment was very dignified; out of context, it was devastating).

In sum, the Thompson campaign is sinking. Thompson's road signs in the Palmetto State are extremely sparse, especially compared to those of ex-Libertarian Party candidate Ron Paul. Some might say that spotting a Thompson bumper sticker has become almost as difficult as capturing an image of the elusive ivory-billed woodpecker in Congaree National Park.

Fortunately, all is not lost for Thompson on the national political stage. Thompson's career in the Senate was marked by a voting record more conservative than John McCain, for example. These conservative bona fides, coupled with a fortuitous endorsement by National Right to Life and endearing Southern charm, make Fred Thompson an ideal pick for vice president.

Casting the dangers of regionalism aside, the national electability of Northerners like Romney, Giuliani, or McCain would be greatly enhanced with a Southerner like Thompson on the ticket.

Of course, Thompson's vice presidential fortunes could be dashed by an early endorsement of McCain, if McCain's momentum were to dip precipitously after the liberal-leaning voters of New Hampshire cast their ballots on Jan. 8. An endorsement of McCain would not be surprising since both men were colleagues in the Senate, and Thompson was a tenacious supporter of McCain-Feingold. (In fact, Thompson even referred to the bill as McCain-Feingold-Thompson!).

From the standpoint of political self-interest, it seems that Thompson's best course of action is to withhold any official endorsement unil the primary winner is decided. An endorsement of the eventual primary loser might not spell the end of Thompson's possible vice presidential role, but with other talented (and arguably more principled) Southern conservatives available, he could be overlooked.

Dynamism is the sine qua non of 21st century American politics. Anything can still happen to influence the outcome of 2008's upcoming "Nobody Knows" primary season. Given this caveat, there is certainly room for reasonable speculation. And I will shoot into the dark right here and now: a Romney-Thompson ticket would be an electoral juggernaut.